Correlates of War Bibliography

• Theoretical Rationale and Research Strategy
• Constructing the Indicators and Generating the Data
• Testing Some Models and Analyzing the Data
• Practical Implications: Policy and Teaching

Note: Bibliographic entries are chronological within each category

I. THEORETICAL ORIENTATION AND RESEARCH STRATEGY:

• Singer, J. David. (1963). "Inter-Nation Influence: A Formal Model." American Political Science Review, 57: 420-30; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 48-67.
• Deutsch, Karl and J. David Singer. (1964). "Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability." World Politics, 16: 390-406.
• Singer, J. David. (1965). "The Political Matrix of International Conflict" in Elton McNeill (ed) The Nature of Human Conflict, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 139-54.
• Singer, J. David. (1970). "From a Study of War to Peace Research: Some Criteria and Strategies." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 14: 527-40; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 21-34.
• Singer, J. David. (1970). "Escalation and Control in International Conflict: A Simple Feedback Model." General Systems, 15: 163-73; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 68-88.
• Singer, J. David. (1970). "The Outcome of Arms Races: A Policy Problem and a Research Approach." Proceedings of IPRA Third General Conference, Oslo, 137-46; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 145-54.
• Singer, J. David. (1970). "Modern International War: From Conjecture to Explanation" in Albert Lepawsky, Edward Buehrig, and Harold Lasswell (eds) The Search for World Order, New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts, 47-71.
• Singer, J. David. (1972). "The Correlates of War Project: Interim Report and Rationale." World Politics, 24: 243-70.
• Small, Melvin and J. David Singer. (1973). "Historiche Tatsachen u. Wissenschaftliche Daten am Beispiel der Erforschung von Kriegen" ("Historical Facts and Scientific Data in the Study of War") in Peter Ludz (ed) Soziologie and Sozialgeschichte Aspekte und Probleme Westedeutscher, 221-41.
• Leng, Russell. (1975). "The Future of Events Data Marriages: A Question of Compatibility" International Interactions, 2: 45-62.
• Singer, J. David. (1976). "The Correlates of War Project: Continuity, Diversity, and Convergence" in Francis Hoole and Dina Zinnes (eds) Quantitative International Politics: An Appraisal, New York: Praeger, 21-66.
• Small, Melvin. (1976). "The Applicability of Quantitative International Politics to Diplomatic History." The Historian, 38: 281-304.
• Singer, J. David. (1977). "The Historical Experiment as a Research Strategy in the Study of World Politics." Social Science History, 2: 1-22; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 175-98; and in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 134-50.
• Singer, J. David. (1978). "The Behavioral Approach to Diplomatic History" in Alexander de Conde (ed) Dictionary of the History of American Foreign Policy, New York: Scribner, 66-77.
• Deutsch, Karl. (1980). "An Interim Summary and Evaluation" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 287-95.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1980). "An Expected Utility Theory of International Conflict: An Exploratory Study" American Political Science Review, 74: 917-31.
• Singer, J. David. (1981). "Accounting for International War: The State of the Discipline" Journal of Peace Research, 18: 1-18.
• Singer, J.David. (1982). "Confrontational Behavior and Escalation to War, 1816-1980: A Research Plan" Journal of Peace Research, 19:37-48.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1984). "Theory and the Advancement of Knowledge About War" Review of International Studies: 65-75.
• Wallace, Michael. (1985). "Polarization: Toward a Scientific Conception" in Alan Sabosky (ed) Polarity and War: The Changing Structure of International Conflict, Boulder: Westview, 95-113.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1985). "Toward a Scientific Understanding of International Conflict" International Studies Quarterly, 29: 121-36.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1987). "Conceptualizing War" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31: 370-82.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1988). "Expected Utility Theory and the Study of International Conflict" Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 629-52.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1989). "The Contribution of Expected Utility Theory to Understanding International Conflict" in Manus Midlarsky (ed) Handbook of War Studies, Boston: Unwin-Hyman, 143-69.
• Singer, J. David. (1989). "System Structure, Decision Processes, and the Incidence of International War" in Manus Midlarsky (ed) Handbook of War Studies, Boston: Unwin-Hyman, 1-21; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 238-55.
• Singer, J. David. (1989). "The Making of a Peace Researcher" in James Rosenau and Joseph Kruzel (eds) Journeys Through World Politics, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 213-30.
• Singer, J. David. (1990). "One Man's View: A Personal History of the Correlates of War Project" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 11-28.
• Small, Melvin. (1990). "History and the Correlates of War Project" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 29-40.

II. CONSTRUCTING THE INDICATORS AND GENERATING THE DATA

• Singer, J. David and Melvin Small. (1966). "The Composition and Status Ordering of the International System: 1815-1940" World Politics, 18: 236-82.
• Singer, J. David and Melvin Small. (1966). "Formal Alliances, 1815-1939: A Quantitative Description" Journal of Peace Research, 1: 1-32.
• Russett, Bruce, J. David Singer, and Melvin Small. (1968). "National Political Units in the Twentieth Century: A Standardized List" American Political Science Review, 62: 932-51.
• Small, Melvin and J. David Singer. (1969). "Formal Alliances, 1816-1965: An Extension of the Basic Data" Journal of Peace Research, 3: 257-82; reprinted in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 159-90.
• Wallace, Michael and J. David Singer. (1970). "Inter-Governmental Organization in the Global System, 1816-1964: A Quantitative Description" International Organization, 24: 239-87.
• Singer, J. David and Melvin Small. (1970). "Patterns in International Warfare, 1816-1965" Annals of American Academy of Political and Social Science, 391: 145-55.
• Ray, James Lee and J. David Singer. (1973). "Measuring the Concentration of Power in the International System" Sociological Methods and Research, 1: 403-37; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 273-304; and in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 115-37.
• Small, Melvin and J. David Singer. (1973). "Diplomatic Importance of States, 1816-1970: An Extension and Refinement of the Indicator" World Politics, 25: 577-99; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 225-65; and in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 31-51.
• Wallace, Michael. (1975). "Clusters of Nations in the Global System, 1865-1964" International Studies Quarterly, 19: 67-110; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 253-72.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1975). "Measuring Systemic Polarity" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 19: 187-216.
• Leng, Russell and J. David Singer. (1977). "Towards a Multi-Theoretical Typology of International Behavior" in Mario Bunge, Johan Galtung and Mircea Malitza (eds) Mathematical Approaches to International Relations, Bucharest: Romanian Academy, 71-93.
• Ray, James Lee and Rein Taagerpera. (1977). "A Generalized Index of Concentration" Sociological Methods and Research, 5: 367-84.
• Leng, Russell. (1979). "Event Data Validity: Comparing Coding Schemes" in Don Munton (ed) Measuring International Behavior: Public Sources, Events, Validity, Halifax, Nova Scotia: Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, 127-42.
• Leng, Russell. (1979). "The Historian vs. the Journalist: Diplomatic Histories and the New York Times as Event Data Sources" in Don Munton (ed) Measuring International Behavior: Public Sources, Events, Validity, Halifax, Nova Scotia: Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, 164-73.
• Ray, James Lee. (1980). "The Measurement of System Structure" in J. David Singer (ed) Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 36-54; reprinted in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 99-114.
• Singer, J. David. (1982). "Variables, Indicators, and Data: The Measurement Problem in Macro-Political Research" Social Science History, 6: 181-217; reprinted in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 3-28; and in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990. 110-33.
• Gochman, Charles and Zeev Maoz. (1984). "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976: Procedures, Patterns, and Insights" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28: 585-615.; reprinted in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 193-221.
• Goertz, Gary and Paul F. Diehl. (1986). "Measuring Military Allocations: A Comparison of Different Approaches" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 30: 553-81; reprinted in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 73-95.
• Singer, J. David. (1987). "Reconstructing the Correlates of War Dataset on Material Capabilities of States, 1816-1985" International Interactions, 14: 115-32; reprinted in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 53-71.
• Leng, Russell and J. David Singer. (1988). "Militarized Interstates Crises: The BCOW Typology and its Applications" International Studies Quarterly, 32: 115-74; reprinted in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 223-44.
• Wayman, Frank and T. Clifton Morgan. (1990). "Measuring Polarity in the International System" in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 139-56.
• Wayman, Frank and J. David Singer. (1990). "Evolution and Directions for Improvement in the Correlates of War Project Methodologies" in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds) Measuring the Correlates of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990, 247-67.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1990). "Big Wars, Little Wars: Avoiding Selection Bias." International Interactions, 16: 159-69.

III. TESTING SOME MODELS AND ANALYZING THE DATA

• Singer, J. David and Melvin Small. (1966). "National Alliance Commitments and War Involvement, 1815-1945" Peace Research Society (International) Papers 5: 109-40.
• Singer, J. David and Melvin Small. (1968). "Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War, 1815-1945" in J. David Singer (ed) Quantitative International Politics: Insights and Evidence, New York: Free Press, 247-86; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 225-64; and in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 159-200.
• Singer, J. David and Michael Wallace. (1970). "Inter-Governmental Organization and the Preservation of Peace, 1816-1965: Some Bivariate Relationships" International Organization, 24: 520-47.
• Wallace, Mike. (1971). "Power, Status, and International War" Journal of Peace Research, 1: 23-35.
• Singer, J. David, Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey. (1972). "Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965." in Bruce Russett (ed) Peace, War, and Numbers, Beverly Hills: Sage, 19-48; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, Free Press, 1979, 265-97; and in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 159-88.
• Wallace, Michael. (1972). "Status, Formal Organization, and Arms Levels as Factors Leading to the Onset of War, 1820-1964" in Bruce Russett (ed) Peace, War, and Numbers, Beverly Hills: Sage, 49-69.
• Skjelsback, Kjell. (1972). "Shared Memberships in Intergovernmental Organization and Dyadic War, 1865-1964" in Edwin Fedder (ed) The United Nations: Problems and Prospects, Columbia, MO.: University of Missouri Center for International Study, 31-61.
• Bremer, Stuart, J. David Singer, and Urs Luterbacher. (1973). "The Population Density and War Proneness of European Nations, 1816-1965" Comparative Political Studies, 6: 329-48; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 189-207.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and J. David Singer. (1973). "Alliances, Capabilities, and War: A Review and Synthesis" in C.P. Cotter (ed) Political Science Annual, New York: Bobbs, 237-80.
• Wallace, Michael. (1973). War and Rank Among Nations, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
• Wallace, Michael. (1973). "Alliance Polarization, Cross-Cutting Cleavages, and International War, 1815-1964: A Measurement Procedure and Some Preliminary Evidence" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 17: 575-604; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 83-112.
• Ray, James Lee. (1974). "Status Inconsistency and War Involvement in Europe, 1816-1970" Peace Society (International) Papers, 23: 69-80.
• Leng, Russell and Robert Goodsell. (1974). "Behavioral Indicators of War Proneness in Bilateral Conflicts" in Patrick McGowan (ed) Sage International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies, Beverly Hills: Sage, 191-226; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 208-39.
• Singer, J. David and Sandra Bouxsein. (1975). "Structural Clarity and International War: Some Tentative Findings" in Murray (ed) Interdisciplinary Aspects of General Systems Theory, 126-35.
• Gleditsch, Nils Peter and J. David Singer. (1975). "Distance and International War,1816-1965" Proceedings of the IPRA Fifth General Conference, Oslo, 481-506.
• Sabrosky, Alan. (1975). "From Bosnia to Sarajevo: A Comparative Discussion of Interstate Crises" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 19: 3-24; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 139-57.
• Wheeler, Hugh. (1975). "Effects of War on Industrial Growth" Society, 12: 48-52.
• Small, Melvin and J. David Singer. (1976). "The War Proneness of Democratic Regimes" Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, 1: 49-69.
• Mihalka, Michael. (1976). "Hostilities in the European State System, 1816-1970" Peace Science Society (International) Papers, 26: 100-16.
• Mihalka, Michael. (1977). "Realpolitik, Arbitrations, and the Use of Force: The European Experience, 1816-1970" Peace Science Society (International) Papers, 27: 77-87.
• Cannizzo, Cynthia. (1978). "Capability Distribution and Major Power War Experience, 1816-1965" Orbis, 947-57.
• Small, Melvin. (1978). "Does Size Make A Difference? The Martial and Diplomatic Experience of Major and Other Powers, 1816-1977" in Amstrup and Faurby (eds) Studier i Dansk Udenrigspolitik, Aarhus, Denmark: Forlaget Politica.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1978). "Systemic Polarization and the Occurrence and Duration of War" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 22: 241-67; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 113-38.
• Small, Melvin and J. David Singer. (1979). "Conflict in the International System, 1816-1977: Historical Trends and Policy Futures" in Charles Kegley and Patrick McGowan (eds) Challenges to America: United States Foreign Policy in the 1980s, Beverly Hills: Sage, 89-115; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 57-82.
• Wallace, Michael. (1979). "Arms Races and Escalation: Some New Evidence" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 23: 3-16; reprinted in J. David Singer and Associates Explaining War, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979, 240-252.
• Leng, Russell and Hugh Wheeler. (1979). "Influence Strategies, Success and War" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 23: 655-284.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and Michael Altfeld. (1979). "Choosing Sides in Wars" International Studies Quarterly, 23: 87-112.
• Gochman, Charles and Jame Lee Ray. (1979). "Structural Disparities in Latin American and Europe, 1950-1970" Journal of Peace Research, 16: 231-54.
• Bremer, Stuart. (1980). "National Capabilities and War Proneness" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 57-82.
• Gochman, Charles. (1980). "Status, Capabilities, and Major Power Conflict" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 83-123.
• Leng, Russell. (1980). "Influence Strategies and Interstate Conflict" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 124-57.
• Sabrosky, Alan. (1980). "Interstate Alliances: Their Reliability and the Expansion of War" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 161-98.
• Yamamoto, Yoshinobu and Stuart Bremer. (1980). "Wider Wars and Restless Nights: Major Power Intervention in Ongoing War" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 199-229.
• Cannizzo, Cynthia. (1980). "The Costs of Combat: Death, Duration and Defeat" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 233-57.
• Wheeler, Hugh. (1980). "Postwar Industrial Growth" in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, New York: Free Press, 258-84.
• Wallace, Michael. (1980). "Accounting for Superpower Arms Spending" in Charles Kegley and Patrick McGowan (eds) Threats, Weapons and Foreign Policy, Beverly Hills: Sage, 259-74.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1980). "An Expected Utility Theory of International Conflict: An Exploratory Study" American Political Science Review, 74: 917-31.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1980). "Theories of International Conflict: An Analysis and Appraisal" in Ted Gurr (ed) The Handbook of Political Conflict, New York: Free Press.
• Singer, J. David and Thomas Cusack. (1981). "Periodicity, Inexorability, and Steersmanship in Major Power War" in Richard Merritt and Bruce Russett (eds) From National Development to Global Community, London: Allen and Unwin, 402-22; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 220-37.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1981). The War Trap, New Haven: Yale University Press.
• Wallace, Michael. (1981). "Old Nails in New Coffins: The Para Bellum Hypothesis Revisited" Journal of Peace Research, 18: 91-96.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1981). "Risk, Power Distributions, and the Likelihood of War" International Studies Quarterly, 25: 541-68.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1982). Paths to Conflict: International Dispute Initiation, 1816-1976, Boulder: Westview.
• Leng, Russell and Charles Gochman. (1982). "Dangerous Disputes: A Study of Conflict Behavior and War" American Journal of Political Science, 26: 664-87.
• Cusack, Thomas and Wolf Dieter Eberwein. (1982). "Prelude to War: Incidence, Escalation and Intervention in International Disputes, 1900-1976" International Interactions, 9: 9-28.
• Bremer, Stuart. (1982). "The Contagiousness of Coercion: The Spread of Serious International Disputes, 1900-1976" International Interactions, 9: 29-56.
• Leng, Russell and Stephen Walker. (1982). "Comparing Two Studies of Crisis Bargaining: Confrontation, Coercion, and Reciprocity" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 26: 571-91.
• Wallace, Michael. (1982). "Armaments and Escalation" International Studies Quarterly, 26: 37-56.
• Stoll, Richard. (1982). "Major Power Interstate Conflict in the Post-World War II Era: An Increase, A Decrease, or no Change?" Western Political Quarterly, 35: 587-605.
• Gochman, Charles and Russell Leng. (1983). "Realpolitik and the Road to War: An Analysis of Attributes and Behavior" International Studies Quarterly, 27: 97-120.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1983). "The Costs of War: A Rational Expectations Approach" American Political Science Review, 77: 347-357.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1983). "Modeling the Initiation, Excalation, and Termination of Conflict" Mathematical Social Sciences.
• Stoll, Richard. (1983). "Nations at the Brink: A Computer Simulation of Governmental Behavior During Serious Disputes" Simulation and Games, 14: 179-200.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1983). "Resolve, Capabilities, and the Outcome of Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27: 195-229.
• Leng, Russell. (1983). "When Will They Ever Learn? Coercive Bargaining in Recurrent Crises" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27: 379-419.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1983). "A Behavioral Model of Dispute Escalation: The Major Powers 1816-1976" International Interactions, 10: 373-99.
• Diehl, Paul. (1983). "Arms Races and Escalation: A Closer Look" Journal of Peace Research, 20: 205-12.
• Wayman, Frank, J. David Singer, and Gary Goertz. (1983). "Capabilities, Allocations, and Success in Militarized Disputes and Wars, 1816-1976" International Studies Quarterly, 27: 497-515; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 210-19.
• Stoll, Richard. (1984). "Bloc Concentration and the Balance of Power: The European Major Powers, 1824-1914" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28: 25-50.
• Stoll, Richard. (1984). "Bloc Concentration and Dispute Escalation Among the Major Powers, 1830-1965" Social Science Quarterly, 65: 48-59.
• Stoll, Richard. (1984). "From Fire to Frying Pan: The Impact of Major Power War Involvement on Major Power Dispute Involvement, 1816-1976" Conflict Resolution and Peace Science, 7: 71-82.
• Leng, Russell. (1984). "Reagan and the Russians: Crisis Bargaining Beliefs and the Historical Record" American Political Science Review, 78: 338-55.
• Wayman, Frank. (1984). "Bipolarity and War: The Role of Capability Concentration and Alliance Patterns Among Major Powers, 1816-1965" Journal of Peace Research, 21: 25-42.
• Geller, Daniel. (1984). "Modeling the Conflict Patterns of Nations" in J. David Singer and Richard Stoll (eds) Quantitative Indicators in World Politics, New York: Praeger, 35-74.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1984). "Scientific Logic and Intuition in Intelligence Forecasts" in J. David Singer and Richard Stoll (eds) Quantitative Indicators in World Politics, New York: Praeger, 77-124.
• Stoll, Richard. (1984). "The Use of Force by the United States: Contingent Forecasts" in J. David Singer and Richard Stoll (eds) Quantitative Indicators in World Politics, New York: Praeger, 125-50.
• Wayman, Frank. (1984). "Voices Prophesying War: Events and Perceptions as Indicators of Conflict Potential in the Middle East" in J. David Singer and Richard Stoll (eds) Quantitative Indicators in World Politics, New York: Praeger, 153-86.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1984). "Peace by Empire? Conflict Outcomes and International Stability, 1816-1976" Journal of Peace Research, 21: 227-41.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1984). "An Expected Utility Explanatiton of Conflict Escalation" in Dina Zinnes (ed) Conflict Processes and the Breakdown of International Systems, Denver: Monograph Series in World Affairs, vol.20, no.2, 47-60.
• Stoll, Richard and Michael Champion. (1985). "Capability Concentration, Alliance Bonding, and Conflict Among Major Powers" in Alan Sabrosky (ed) Polarity and War: The Changing Structure of International Conflict, Boulder: Westview, 67-94.
• Wayman, Frank. (1985). "Bipolarity, Multipolarity, and the Threat of War" in Alan Sabrosky (ed) Polarity and War: The Changing Structure of International Conflict, Boulder: Westview, 115-44.
• Sabrosky, Alan. (1985). "Alliance Aggregation, Capability Distribution, and the Expansion of Interstate War" in Alan Sabrosky (ed) Polarity and War: The Changing Structure of International Conflict, Boulder: Westview, 145-89.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1985). "The War Trap Revisited" American Political Science Review, 79: 157-76.
• Diehl, Paul and Gary Goertz. (1985). "Trends in Military Allocation Since 1816: What Goes Up Does Not Always Come Down" Armed Forces and Society, 12: 134-44.
• Diehl, Paul. (1985). "Armaments Without War: An Analysis of Some Underlying Effects" Journal of Peace Research, 22: 249-59.
• Diehl, Paul. (1985). "Arms Races to War: Testing Some Empirical Linkages" Sociological Quarterly, 26: 331-49.
• Diehl, Paul. (1985). "Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries, 1816-1980" Journal of Politics, 47: 1203-11.
• Leng, Russell. (1985). "Realism and Crisis Bargaining: A Report on Five Empirical Studies" in John Vasquez (ed) Evaluating U.S. Foreign Policy, New York: Praeger, 39-57.
• Stoll, Richard. (1985). "Simulating Government Behavior During Disputes" in Michael Ward (ed) Theories, Models, and Simulations in International Relations: Essays in Honor of Harold Guetzkow, Boulder: Westview, 510-19.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and David Lalman. (1986). "Reason and War" American Political Science Review, 80: 1113-31
• Ray James Lee and Ayse Vural. (1986). "Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes" International Interactions, 12: 315-42.
• Diehl, Paul and Jean Kingston. (1987). "Messenger or Message?: Military Buildups and the Initiation of Conflict" Journal of Politics, 49: 801-13.
• Leng, Russell. (1987). "Structure and Action in Crisis Bargaining" in Charles Hermann, Charles Kegley, and James Rosenau (eds) New Directions in the Comparative Study of Foreign Policy, Winchester, MA: Allen and Unwin, 178-99.
• Stoll, Richard. (1987). "System and State in International Politics: A Computer Simulation of Balancing in an Anarchic World" International Studies Quarterly, 31: 387-402.
• Diehl, Paul and Gary Goertz. (1988). "Territorial Changes and Militarized Conflict" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32: 103-22.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and David Lalman. (1988). "Empirical Support for Systemic and Dyadic Explanations of International Conflict" World Politics, 41: 1-20.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and Grace Iusi Scarborough. (1988). "Threat and Alignment Behavior" International Interactions, 14: 85-93.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and David Lalman. (1988). "Arms Races and the Opportunity for Peace" Synthese, 76: 263-83.
• Geller, Daniel. (1988). "Power System Membership and Patterns of War" International Political Science Review, 9: 365-79.
• Stoll, Richard. (1989). "State Power, World Views, and the Major Powers" in Richard Stoll and Michael Ward (eds) Power in World Politics, Boulder: Lynee Rienner, 135-58.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and David Lalman. (1989). "Dyadic Power, Expectations, and War" in Richard Stoll and Michael Ward (eds) Power in World Politics, Boulder: Lynee Rienner, 177-92; reprinted in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1990, 161-76.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and David Lalman. (1989). "The Road to War is Strewn with Peaceful Intentions" in Peter Ordeshook (ed) Models of Strategic Choice in Politics, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 253-65.
• Goertz, Gary and Paul Diehl. (1989). "A Territorial History of the International System" International Interactions, 15: 81-93.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1989). "Power, Capabilities, and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes" World Politics, 41: 239-66.
• Maoz, Zeev and Nasrin Abdolali. (1989). "Regime Types and International Conflict, 1816-1976" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33: 3-36.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1989). "Joining the Club of Nataions: Political Development and International Conflict, 1816-1976" International Studies Quarterly, 33: 199-231.
• Ray, James Lee. (1989). "The Abolition of Slavery and the End of International War" International Organization, 43: 405-40.
• Van Raemdonck, Dirk and Paul Diehl. (1989). "After the Shooting Stops: Insights on Post-War Economic Growth" Journal of Peace Research, 26: 249-64.
• Cusack, Thomas and Uwe Zimmer. (1989). "Realpolitik and the Basics of Multistate System Endurance" Journal of Politics, 51: 247-85.
• Maoz, Zeev. (1990). Paradoxes of War, Boston: Unwin Hyman.
• Goertz, Gary and Paul Diehl. (1990). "Territorial Changes and Recurring Conflict" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 57-72.
• Ray, James Lee. (1990). "Friends as Foes: International Conflict and Wars Between Formal Allies" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 73-92.
• Wayman, Frank. (1990). "Alliances and War: A Time-Series Analysis" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 93-114.
• Wallace, Michael. (1990). "Racing Redux: The Arms Race-Escalation Debate Revisited" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 115-22.
• Gochman, Charles. (1990). "Capability-Driven Disputes" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 141-60.
• Stoll, Richard and Russell Leng. (1990). "One Small Step, One Giant Leap: Strategy Selection in Militarized Disputes" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 177-90.
• Cusack, Thomas and Richard Stoll. (1990). "Rationality's Reward in a Warring State System" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 191-206.
• Yamamoto, Yoshinobu. (1990). "Rationality or Chance: The Expansion and Control of War" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 231-56.
• Altfeld, Michael and Alan Sabrosky. (1990). "Indicators of Power: National Versus Battlefield Capabilities in the Post-1945 Era" in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky (eds) Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 257-70.
• Geller, Daniel. (1990). "Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Crisis Escalation" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34: 291-310.
• Stoll, Richard. (1990). U.S. National Security Policy and the Soviet Union: Persistent Regularities and Extreme Contingencies, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
• Stoll, Richard and Thomas Cusack. (1990). Exploring Realpolitik: Probing International Relations Theory with Computer Simulation, Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
• Stoll, Richard and Thomas Cusack. (1990). "Adaptation, State Survival, and System Endurance: A Simulation Study" International Political Science Review, 11: 261-78.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and David Lalman. (1990). "Domestic Opposition and Foreign War" American Political Science Review, 84: 747-65.
• Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. (1990). "Pride of Place: The Origins of German Hegemony" World Politics, 43: 28-52.
• Diehl, Paul and Gary Goertz. (1991). "Entering International Society: Military Conflict and National Independence, 1816-1980" Comparative Political Studies, 23: 497-518.
• Goertz, Gary and Paul Diehl. (1991). Territorial Changes and International Conflict, London: Routledge.

IV. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: POLICY AND TEACHING

• Singer, J. David. (1970). "Knowledge, Practice, and the Social Sciences in International Politics" in Norman Palmer (ed) A Design for International Relations Research Monograph 10, Philadelphia: American Academy of Political and Social Science, 137-49.
• Singer, J. David and Melvin Small. (1974). "Foreign Policy Indicators: Predictors or War in History and in the State of the World Message" Policy Sciences, 5: 271-96; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 298-329.
• Singer, J. David. (1974). "The Peace Researcher and Foreign Policy Prediction" Peace Science Society (International) Papers, 21: 1-13; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) The Correlates of War I: Research Origins and Rationale, New York: Free Press, 1979, 155-71.
• Wallace, Michael. (1979). "Early Warning Indicators from the Correlates of War Project" in J. David Singer and Michael Wallace (eds) To Augur Well: Early Warning Indicators in World Politics, Beverly Hills: Sage, 17-36.
• Singer, J. David. (1979). "Conflict Research, Political Action, and Epistemology" in Ted Gurr (ed) Handbook of Conflict Theory and Research, Free Press, 140-49.
• Singer, J. David and Richard Stoll. (1984). "Basic Research: The Policy Relevant Spinoff" in J. David Singer and Richard Stoll (eds) Quantitative Indicators in World Politics, New York: Praeger, 1-8.
• Singer, J. David. (1985). "The Responsibilities of Competence in the Global Village" International Studies Quarterly, 29: 245-62; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 272-92.
• Singer, J. David. (1985). "Forsuarsberedskap, Nationell Sakerhet och Historiens Lardomar (Military Preparedness, National Security, and Lessons from History)" Swedish Yearbook of International Affairs, 236-56.
• Singer, J. David. (1986). "Research, Policy and the Correlates of War" in Oyvind Osterud (ed) Studies of War & Peace, Oslo: Norwegian University Press, 44-59; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 260-71.
• Singer, J. David. (1986). "The Error Term & Accident in Nuclear War" in Dean Babst and Robert Aldridge (eds) The Nuclear Time Bomb, Dundas, Canada: Peace Research Institute, Vol.II 58- 67; reprinted in J. David Singer (ed) Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey, Boulder: Westview, 1990, 9-16.
• Williamson, Paul. (1986). "Accidents and Deliberation as Elements in the Outbreak of War" in Dean Babst and Robert Aldridge (eds) The Nuclear Time Bomb, Dundas, Canada: Peace Research Institute, Vol.II 76-83.
• Diehl. Paul and Gary Goertz. (1991). "Territorial Changes and Future International Conflict" Relazioni Internazionali, 55: 22-33.